How are we performing currently?
The framework below sets out the criteria against which the current status can be assessed. Aspirational objectives are then set to encourage progress towards the vision.
The framework below sets out the criteria against which the current status can be assessed. Aspirational objectives are then set to encourage progress towards the vision.

2021 Assessment
Where are we now and what else do we need to know?
The Zero Carbon Britain (ZCB) scenario shows how, subject to appropriate reductions in energy demand, we could provide all of our energy using only renewable sources, with no nuclear. Based on extensive analysis of historic weather patterns (wind speed, sun hours) and considering all the available technologies (including those that would be needed to meet demand during times of inadequate wind and/or sun), the split of provision shown in Figure 1 would provide this 100% coverage across the UK.
In October 2021, the UK Government announced, as part of its Net Zero Strategy, that all UK electricity will come from ‘clean energy sources’ by 2035. This broad commitment is a welcome one. However the inclusion of nuclear and the seemingly contradictory figure of a residual 15-20% of emissions suggests the commitment to rapid decarbonisation and move to full renewable deployment is still lacking.
Nationally, targeted provision of energy to the grid previously assumed approximately half of this will come from offshore wind farms, leaving the remainder to be provided locally. For this assessment, the starting point is that, because a site has been identified within Poole Bay in which an offshore wind farm could be located, we have the potential to produce all our energy locally.
Of course, Dorset doesn’t have to produce all of its power within the county boundaries but, as set out above, the aim here is to develop an understanding of what our energy demands look like in terms of generating power, to assess what is possible and to create that connection and awareness. As we will outline below, not only is this possible but producing all our energy locally also brings additional benefits.
Dorset’s current energy needs (as shown in the table and chart below) are estimated to be around 14,000 GWh[1]; businesses and residential are the county’s two largest sources of GHG emissions (after transport), contributing 60% of the total when combined. Work in the ZCB report (as outlined in the Power Down chapter) proposes we should reduce our energy demand by 60%. In line with this, for this chapter the targeted energy requirement is based on this reduced level of 5,600 GWh (which would also cover the electricity required for transport). Energy consumption has decreased steadily over the last decade, with total demand over 7% lower than in 2010. Total energy demand per person in Dorset is 23 MWh. Three quarters of this demand is met through fossil fuels, predominantly natural gas for heating and petroleum for vehicles.
[1] www.dorsetlep.co.uk/userfiles/files/Dorset%20Low%20Carbon%20Opportunities%20Evidence%20Base.pdf
Where are we now and what else do we need to know?
The Zero Carbon Britain (ZCB) scenario shows how, subject to appropriate reductions in energy demand, we could provide all of our energy using only renewable sources, with no nuclear. Based on extensive analysis of historic weather patterns (wind speed, sun hours) and considering all the available technologies (including those that would be needed to meet demand during times of inadequate wind and/or sun), the split of provision shown in Figure 1 would provide this 100% coverage across the UK.
In October 2021, the UK Government announced, as part of its Net Zero Strategy, that all UK electricity will come from ‘clean energy sources’ by 2035. This broad commitment is a welcome one. However the inclusion of nuclear and the seemingly contradictory figure of a residual 15-20% of emissions suggests the commitment to rapid decarbonisation and move to full renewable deployment is still lacking.
Nationally, targeted provision of energy to the grid previously assumed approximately half of this will come from offshore wind farms, leaving the remainder to be provided locally. For this assessment, the starting point is that, because a site has been identified within Poole Bay in which an offshore wind farm could be located, we have the potential to produce all our energy locally.
Of course, Dorset doesn’t have to produce all of its power within the county boundaries but, as set out above, the aim here is to develop an understanding of what our energy demands look like in terms of generating power, to assess what is possible and to create that connection and awareness. As we will outline below, not only is this possible but producing all our energy locally also brings additional benefits.
Dorset’s current energy needs (as shown in the table and chart below) are estimated to be around 14,000 GWh[1]; businesses and residential are the county’s two largest sources of GHG emissions (after transport), contributing 60% of the total when combined. Work in the ZCB report (as outlined in the Power Down chapter) proposes we should reduce our energy demand by 60%. In line with this, for this chapter the targeted energy requirement is based on this reduced level of 5,600 GWh (which would also cover the electricity required for transport). Energy consumption has decreased steadily over the last decade, with total demand over 7% lower than in 2010. Total energy demand per person in Dorset is 23 MWh. Three quarters of this demand is met through fossil fuels, predominantly natural gas for heating and petroleum for vehicles.
[1] www.dorsetlep.co.uk/userfiles/files/Dorset%20Low%20Carbon%20Opportunities%20Evidence%20Base.pdf
The aim here is to determine what this would actually look like (i.e. how many solar panels, wind turbines, anaerobic digesters etc. would we actually see across the county). While there are, of course, many possible outcomes we will do this by looking at two scenarios:
[1] https://www.dorsetlep.co.uk/userfiles/files/Dorset%20Low%20Carbon%20Energy%20Opportunities%20Document.pdf
Figure 3, from the LEP report, outlines both existing and potential projects and areas where renewable energy could be deployed.
- The level of renewable energy capacity required if we achieve the recommended reductions in overall energy demand.
- The level of renewable energy capacity required if we only continue reductions in demand at current level.
[1] https://www.dorsetlep.co.uk/userfiles/files/Dorset%20Low%20Carbon%20Energy%20Opportunities%20Document.pdf
Figure 3, from the LEP report, outlines both existing and potential projects and areas where renewable energy could be deployed.
While Dorset benefits from extensive analysis and research in this area (in addition to the LEP report the Bournemouth, Dorset and Poole Renewable Energy Strategyand associated analysis, produced in 2013 provide a strong foundation of data), it suffers from a disappointing lack of renewable provision to date. These reports proposed a target of renewables providing 15% of Dorset, Bournemouth and Poole’s energy needs by 2020. Approximately half of this (7.5%) was assumed to be delivered by those installations considered by Government to be national resources, principally offshore wind.
Where are we now?
Current installed renewable capacity in the county is dominated by solar PV, with a total capacity of 480 MW, comprising 420 MW of ground-mounted solar and 60 MW of rooftop solar. In total this accounts for 98% of low-carbon generation capacity. In 2019 (assuming typical load factors), renewable energy generation in Dorset was 685 GWh per year (512 GWh of electricity and 173 GWh of heat). This equates to around 22% of electricity consumption, but only 5% of total energy consumption, i.e. even below the relatively low aspirational 7.5% target. A dramatic improvement is required over the coming decade.
Where are we now?
Current installed renewable capacity in the county is dominated by solar PV, with a total capacity of 480 MW, comprising 420 MW of ground-mounted solar and 60 MW of rooftop solar. In total this accounts for 98% of low-carbon generation capacity. In 2019 (assuming typical load factors), renewable energy generation in Dorset was 685 GWh per year (512 GWh of electricity and 173 GWh of heat). This equates to around 22% of electricity consumption, but only 5% of total energy consumption, i.e. even below the relatively low aspirational 7.5% target. A dramatic improvement is required over the coming decade.
Our model (Figure 4) shows that, following the appropriate power down activity, we should be aiming to produce around 5,600 GWh within Dorset by 2030, to meet all our energy needs.
In 2015, the Secretary of State refused consent[1] for the proposed 970 MW Navitus Bay offshore wind farm, mainly on the grounds of an unacceptable impact on both on- and off-shore seascape, landscape, and visual impact. However, our near neighbours in Brighton and Cornwall, both major tourist destinations, enjoy offshore and onshore wind provision respectively with no evidence of the damage to the tourist sector predicted by Navitus Bay’s opponents.
[1] https://infrastructure.planninginspectorate.gov.uk/wp-content/ipc/uploads/projects/EN010024/EN010024-000055-Secretary%20of%20State%20Decision%20Letter%20and%20Statement%20of%20Reasons.pdf
What do we need?
We have aligned our expectations with those in the Regen report, focusing primarily on wind and solar while recognising there are other technologies that are worth exploring, these provide both benefits to energy supply and potential economic benefits to local communities.
The importance of reducing energy is illustrated in Figure 4. This shows that without deploying offshore wind or reducing energy beyond current projections we would need to find space for 2,000 more onshore turbines or use 28% of available land for additional solar panels. This reduces dramatically if we can reduce demand by 60% and is well within the potential limits if we develop an offshore wind farm.
In 2015, the Secretary of State refused consent[1] for the proposed 970 MW Navitus Bay offshore wind farm, mainly on the grounds of an unacceptable impact on both on- and off-shore seascape, landscape, and visual impact. However, our near neighbours in Brighton and Cornwall, both major tourist destinations, enjoy offshore and onshore wind provision respectively with no evidence of the damage to the tourist sector predicted by Navitus Bay’s opponents.
[1] https://infrastructure.planninginspectorate.gov.uk/wp-content/ipc/uploads/projects/EN010024/EN010024-000055-Secretary%20of%20State%20Decision%20Letter%20and%20Statement%20of%20Reasons.pdf
What do we need?
We have aligned our expectations with those in the Regen report, focusing primarily on wind and solar while recognising there are other technologies that are worth exploring, these provide both benefits to energy supply and potential economic benefits to local communities.
The importance of reducing energy is illustrated in Figure 4. This shows that without deploying offshore wind or reducing energy beyond current projections we would need to find space for 2,000 more onshore turbines or use 28% of available land for additional solar panels. This reduces dramatically if we can reduce demand by 60% and is well within the potential limits if we develop an offshore wind farm.
Dorset’s CEE strategy estimated we would need 4 GW of solar (around 7,700 hectares of panels) or 2 GW of wind (around 700 big turbines), or some combination of the two to meet demand (including transport) and that BCP would need to find the same. The difference is that BCP is unlikely to find the space to install these renewables and so will need to rely on other areas to meet their demand.
Dorset Council itself will need to make the switch from fossil fuels to heat pumps, electric vehicles, and hydrogen over time. It is estimated that in the region of 60 MW of solar PV (or 30 MW of wind) will be required to cover the Council’s own energy needs.
Offshore wind
Meeting the UK’s net-zero target will require additional offshore wind farms, which will need to be deployed at scale and speed, whilst mitigating the impacts of offshore and onshore installations.
Research by Aurora Energy Research suggests powering every home by offshore wind by 2030 (a stated Government ambition) would cost £50bn over the coming decade (by comparison, the current roads budget is £27bn for the next 5 years).
Locally, the Regen work for Dorset LEP[2] assumes there will be a 1 GW offshore wind farm, which could generate 4,800 GWh. The Crown Estate is currently managing the latest round (Round 4 Leasing), of wind farm developments, which should provide at least 7 GW of energy and help meet the Government’s target of installing 40 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030. The next Crown Estates leasing round will start in early 2023 and this is the opportunity to develop an offshore Dorset windfarm. The investment required to construct and operate an offshore wind farm of 1 GW capacity would be about £1.4 billion and could create 2,300 jobs. Local support for such a scheme, including from both Councils, will be critical if it is to succeed. In fact, as covered in Further Information below, there would be many community benefits to be obtained if our local Councils led on this proposal rather than stood in its way. However, given the current timescale for developing such a scheme, the wind farm would not start to generate energy until 2034.
Solar
The LEP/Regen net zero scenario suggests that 1 GW of PV could be added by 2050 at a cost of £518 M and would create 1200 jobs. However, given that we need to accelerate Dorset’s renewables, we have proposed a doubling of PV generation in the next 10 years, which would require an additional 500 MW of PV to be installed. We think this is not an unreasonable assumption, given there are 200 MW of solar in planning and development, including two large PV arrays being built in Spetisbury and Stockbridge (totalling 75 MW) plus two new proposals entering planning in Winfrith (totalling 70 MW). The increase for 2035 would require an additional 150 MW of solar capacity. This would mean an additional 650 MW of capacity to be installed in the next 15 years: again, not an unreasonable aspiration.
The LEP/Regen report[3] shows there is plenty of land (62,000 ha) for large scale solar farms, where only 4% would be needed to host 1200 MW of capacity (as described in their net-zero scenario) and also plenty of roof space (2,000 ha in total; of which 700 ha on domestic houses) for small-scale solar, where PVs installed on between 7 and 11% of this area would be needed to meet the net-zero scenario.
Onshore wind has historically seen minimal development in the area, with no large-scale sites, though the 9.2 MW Alaska Windfarm in East Stoke is currently under construction.
Regen’s resource assessment, which accounts for key technical and planning considerations, has identified 25,000 ha of land area that could potentially be suitable for onshore wind, representing a total potential of 1.3 GW – local scenario projections suggest an installed capacity of up to 100 MW would be in line with the UK’s net zero ambitions, given the lack of existing onshore wind projects in the area. A similar GIS-based study for Dorset Council[1] found a total capacity potential of 1.1 GW in the Dorset County area alone. This 1.1 GW of onshore wind capacity could produce about 2,400 GWh of electricity per year. However, given the opposition to in-shore wind farms it is extremely unlikely all or indeed any of the three identified sites will be built in the next 10 years. For this reason, onshore wind from these three sites is not included in the figures in the table above.
Onshore renewables (PV + wind) could generate 1,300 GWh by 20408. The combined on and offshore renewable energy generation could be 6,100 GWh. This would more than meet the 60% energy demand reduction scenario set out in the Power Down chapter (5,600 GWh) but, unless deployment is massively accelerated, most of this renewable energy will not be in place for 2030.
[1] https://www.dorsetcouncil.gov.uk/planning-buildings-land/planning-policy/dorset-council-local-plan/dorset-council-local-plan-evidence-and-background-papers
[2] https://www.dorsetlep.co.uk/userfiles/files/Dorset%20Low%20Carbon%20Energy%20Opportunities%20Document.pdf
[3] https://www.dorsetlep.co.uk/userfiles/files/Dorset%20Low%20Carbon%20Opportunities%20Evidence%20Base.pdf
Other technologies
Geothermal heat
The geology of the underlying Wessex Basin hosts deep aquifers that can be accessed to provide low- grade heat for heat networks. This has been accomplished in Southampton, where the Southampton District Energy Scheme supplies heat to over 1,000 domestic and commercial properties. Depending on more in-depth study of the strata underlying major population centres in Dorset, the geothermal resource of the area may be exploitable in a similar fashion.
Can Dorset meet its energy demand from renewables by 2030?
Overall, unless there is a massive acceleration in the provision of renewable energy generation in Dorset, most of the renewable energy needed to meet Dorset’s energy demand will not be in place by 2030. In addition, failure to power down energy demand will make the shortfall in renewable energy even worse. The LEP / Regen report and our figures above illustrate how much more wind and solar would be needed to meet this shortfall. Strong political leadership and community engagement is essential to drive down energy demand and install as much renewable energy as quickly as possible to aim for the 2030 target.
The installation of new renewable generation in the UK is not at the scale needed to achieve our carbon reduction targets. The Climate Change Committee has indicated that we need at least a fourfold increase in renewable generation deployment by 2050, and this will be needed at all scales, from offshore wind projects to domestic rooftop solar. Dorset and BCP have a key role in the development of renewable generation as planning authorities, as well as playing a more direct role in enabling renewable energy projects as landowners, developers or purchasers of power. Regen’s guide Local authority models for developing renewable energy[1] provides new ways of thinking on how they can support new renewable development in our area, and in particular the importance of local community-owned schemes.
Who’s going to pay for it all?!
Total existing renewables installations generated around 700 GWh of electricity in 2019 against a 2030 requirement of requirement of around 5,600 GWh. Regen estimated 1 GW of offshore wind and 1 GW solar would require new investment of around £2bn. Our preference would be for these to be a mix of public, community and individual household ownership. Dorset Community Energy has raised £1.5m over the last 5 years and Dorset Council has secured grants of around £25m to support renewables and energy saving in schools. These are large amounts in many contexts but clearly insufficient to meet the requirements here. The community and local authority sectors alone are not likely to be in a position to raise around £2bn, approximately two thirds of which would be towards an offshore windfarm in Poole Bay. Furthermore, there is currently no financial support for community or household renewable generation (despite a 10p/kWh grid feed-in price for new nuclear power index-linked annually for a period of 38 years after the commissioning date!).
However, the South West’s energy future graphic (Figure 6) provides an example of many of the benefits of increasing locally owned generation, maximising the retention of energy spend in Dorset, job creation and a reduction in fuel bills. There are also opportunities for local electricity pricing including lower cost supply to households and businesses from local renewable generation including offshore wind as set out in Policy Exchange’s December 2020 report[2] on local electricity pricing.
[1] https://www.dorsetlep.co.uk/userfiles/files/Dorset%20Low%20Carbon%20Energy%20Opportunities%20Document.pdf
[2] https://www.regen.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/Local-authority-models-for-developing-renewable-energy.pdf
Dorset Council itself will need to make the switch from fossil fuels to heat pumps, electric vehicles, and hydrogen over time. It is estimated that in the region of 60 MW of solar PV (or 30 MW of wind) will be required to cover the Council’s own energy needs.
Offshore wind
Meeting the UK’s net-zero target will require additional offshore wind farms, which will need to be deployed at scale and speed, whilst mitigating the impacts of offshore and onshore installations.
Research by Aurora Energy Research suggests powering every home by offshore wind by 2030 (a stated Government ambition) would cost £50bn over the coming decade (by comparison, the current roads budget is £27bn for the next 5 years).
Locally, the Regen work for Dorset LEP[2] assumes there will be a 1 GW offshore wind farm, which could generate 4,800 GWh. The Crown Estate is currently managing the latest round (Round 4 Leasing), of wind farm developments, which should provide at least 7 GW of energy and help meet the Government’s target of installing 40 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030. The next Crown Estates leasing round will start in early 2023 and this is the opportunity to develop an offshore Dorset windfarm. The investment required to construct and operate an offshore wind farm of 1 GW capacity would be about £1.4 billion and could create 2,300 jobs. Local support for such a scheme, including from both Councils, will be critical if it is to succeed. In fact, as covered in Further Information below, there would be many community benefits to be obtained if our local Councils led on this proposal rather than stood in its way. However, given the current timescale for developing such a scheme, the wind farm would not start to generate energy until 2034.
Solar
The LEP/Regen net zero scenario suggests that 1 GW of PV could be added by 2050 at a cost of £518 M and would create 1200 jobs. However, given that we need to accelerate Dorset’s renewables, we have proposed a doubling of PV generation in the next 10 years, which would require an additional 500 MW of PV to be installed. We think this is not an unreasonable assumption, given there are 200 MW of solar in planning and development, including two large PV arrays being built in Spetisbury and Stockbridge (totalling 75 MW) plus two new proposals entering planning in Winfrith (totalling 70 MW). The increase for 2035 would require an additional 150 MW of solar capacity. This would mean an additional 650 MW of capacity to be installed in the next 15 years: again, not an unreasonable aspiration.
The LEP/Regen report[3] shows there is plenty of land (62,000 ha) for large scale solar farms, where only 4% would be needed to host 1200 MW of capacity (as described in their net-zero scenario) and also plenty of roof space (2,000 ha in total; of which 700 ha on domestic houses) for small-scale solar, where PVs installed on between 7 and 11% of this area would be needed to meet the net-zero scenario.
Onshore wind has historically seen minimal development in the area, with no large-scale sites, though the 9.2 MW Alaska Windfarm in East Stoke is currently under construction.
Regen’s resource assessment, which accounts for key technical and planning considerations, has identified 25,000 ha of land area that could potentially be suitable for onshore wind, representing a total potential of 1.3 GW – local scenario projections suggest an installed capacity of up to 100 MW would be in line with the UK’s net zero ambitions, given the lack of existing onshore wind projects in the area. A similar GIS-based study for Dorset Council[1] found a total capacity potential of 1.1 GW in the Dorset County area alone. This 1.1 GW of onshore wind capacity could produce about 2,400 GWh of electricity per year. However, given the opposition to in-shore wind farms it is extremely unlikely all or indeed any of the three identified sites will be built in the next 10 years. For this reason, onshore wind from these three sites is not included in the figures in the table above.
Onshore renewables (PV + wind) could generate 1,300 GWh by 20408. The combined on and offshore renewable energy generation could be 6,100 GWh. This would more than meet the 60% energy demand reduction scenario set out in the Power Down chapter (5,600 GWh) but, unless deployment is massively accelerated, most of this renewable energy will not be in place for 2030.
[1] https://www.dorsetcouncil.gov.uk/planning-buildings-land/planning-policy/dorset-council-local-plan/dorset-council-local-plan-evidence-and-background-papers
[2] https://www.dorsetlep.co.uk/userfiles/files/Dorset%20Low%20Carbon%20Energy%20Opportunities%20Document.pdf
[3] https://www.dorsetlep.co.uk/userfiles/files/Dorset%20Low%20Carbon%20Opportunities%20Evidence%20Base.pdf
Other technologies
Geothermal heat
The geology of the underlying Wessex Basin hosts deep aquifers that can be accessed to provide low- grade heat for heat networks. This has been accomplished in Southampton, where the Southampton District Energy Scheme supplies heat to over 1,000 domestic and commercial properties. Depending on more in-depth study of the strata underlying major population centres in Dorset, the geothermal resource of the area may be exploitable in a similar fashion.
Can Dorset meet its energy demand from renewables by 2030?
Overall, unless there is a massive acceleration in the provision of renewable energy generation in Dorset, most of the renewable energy needed to meet Dorset’s energy demand will not be in place by 2030. In addition, failure to power down energy demand will make the shortfall in renewable energy even worse. The LEP / Regen report and our figures above illustrate how much more wind and solar would be needed to meet this shortfall. Strong political leadership and community engagement is essential to drive down energy demand and install as much renewable energy as quickly as possible to aim for the 2030 target.
The installation of new renewable generation in the UK is not at the scale needed to achieve our carbon reduction targets. The Climate Change Committee has indicated that we need at least a fourfold increase in renewable generation deployment by 2050, and this will be needed at all scales, from offshore wind projects to domestic rooftop solar. Dorset and BCP have a key role in the development of renewable generation as planning authorities, as well as playing a more direct role in enabling renewable energy projects as landowners, developers or purchasers of power. Regen’s guide Local authority models for developing renewable energy[1] provides new ways of thinking on how they can support new renewable development in our area, and in particular the importance of local community-owned schemes.
Who’s going to pay for it all?!
Total existing renewables installations generated around 700 GWh of electricity in 2019 against a 2030 requirement of requirement of around 5,600 GWh. Regen estimated 1 GW of offshore wind and 1 GW solar would require new investment of around £2bn. Our preference would be for these to be a mix of public, community and individual household ownership. Dorset Community Energy has raised £1.5m over the last 5 years and Dorset Council has secured grants of around £25m to support renewables and energy saving in schools. These are large amounts in many contexts but clearly insufficient to meet the requirements here. The community and local authority sectors alone are not likely to be in a position to raise around £2bn, approximately two thirds of which would be towards an offshore windfarm in Poole Bay. Furthermore, there is currently no financial support for community or household renewable generation (despite a 10p/kWh grid feed-in price for new nuclear power index-linked annually for a period of 38 years after the commissioning date!).
However, the South West’s energy future graphic (Figure 6) provides an example of many of the benefits of increasing locally owned generation, maximising the retention of energy spend in Dorset, job creation and a reduction in fuel bills. There are also opportunities for local electricity pricing including lower cost supply to households and businesses from local renewable generation including offshore wind as set out in Policy Exchange’s December 2020 report[2] on local electricity pricing.
[1] https://www.dorsetlep.co.uk/userfiles/files/Dorset%20Low%20Carbon%20Energy%20Opportunities%20Document.pdf
[2] https://www.regen.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/Local-authority-models-for-developing-renewable-energy.pdf
As set out in the Introduction, this is a climate emergency, “an unexpected and serious happening which calls for immediate and determined action”. It is for this reason that this report calls for the UK Government to enact big, ambitious plans such as a Green New Deal, which reflect the seriousness of the situation and ensure appropriate funding is provided to deliver a just transition (see Justice chapter). A transformation plan which some equate to placing the country on a war footing (as outlined in the What’s Next chapter). For this chapter, the focus remains on the technology.
Current assessment
Having considered the current assessment documented above the report contributors have assessed the county’s current category as:
Current assessment
Having considered the current assessment documented above the report contributors have assessed the county’s current category as: