"By 2030 we have risen to the greatest challenge the human race ever faced and, as well as preventing environmental breakdown, the solutions we have implemented have started to address many of society’s long-standing issues. The overwhelming majority of the population are leading happier, healthier lives. Communities across Dorset are more connected, work-life balances have improved and everywhere the return of nature is evident. This report aims to galvanise the actions that will get us there."
Dorset 2030 aims to provide an answer, not the answer. The latter should be for the people of Dorset to decide. However, in starting with the above vision, and in establishing a template that aims to articulate the problems we face, identify possible solutions, share stories and measure progress, we hope it will provide further impetus to the many conversations already taking place across the county.
There are undoubtably many areas we have omitted in the first report, and maybe included a few errors. We can add/amend these in future updates so, if you have a story to share, a case study to add, or even a correction to be made, please let us know.
While the report has named authors, scores of people have provided inputs to this report, either directly or through their contribution to other collaborative efforts that have been drawn upon, (particularly responses to both Councils’ Climate and Ecological Emergency Plans). We are grateful to every one of them. No assumption should be made that any contributor, organisation referenced or case study quoted agrees with all our proposals. Any mistakes are the authors’.
We have developed this report with a view to doing everything necessary and doing it now! Necessary and now cannot be up for debate - the science makes that much clear. How is ultimately our collective decision. We hope this work helps engage more people in the discussion and in turn raises the pressure on our leaders to act.
Dorset will not be the same in 2030, the latest science shows change is inevitable. Whether we allow business-as-usual to lead us to inevitable problems or decide on something better is down to all of us.
Defining a Vision for 2030
This is the first in what is proposed to be a series of reports, every year or so, assessing the current level of climate and environmental issues across the county of Dorset, setting out the changes required to achieve a zero emissions scenario by 2030 and tracking progress towards this goal.
While acknowledging that the two local Councils cannot make all these changes themselves, that the sum of actions by individuals alone will be insufficient within the required timescales, and that there will be significant reliance on wider Government policies it aims to document what must be achieved. As such it is a transformative report that requires engagement across every sector of society.
The report cannot, and does not seek to, provide all the answers but, by setting out a clear framework and defining a vision, it seeks to engage the wider community to ensure there is a clear understanding of the scale of the problem as well as the options and opportunities to address each issue. Ultimately, the route taken will need to be decided by those impacted, with current decision makers providing appropriate means to ensure the widest possible input is obtained.
Nor does it exist in isolation from the many other activities already planned or underway across the area to address the crises we face. Rather, the intention is to fully understand each of these activities and their contribution in getting us to the vision. It seeks to address the question: if getting to zero carbon is the goal, where are we now, and how can we get there in a manner that also addresses the associated crises of ecology and inequality?
The first report is an initial assessment, a ‘point in time’ perspective. As our understanding develops, as more people are engaged, as the science, political and social environment develop so will this document. In that sense it aims to be a genuine living document that can help inform, inspire and create action.
Background
Both Dorset Council and Bournemouth, Christchurch & Poole Council (BCP) declared climate and ecological emergencies in 2019. These declarations are based on the scientific evidence that we have less than a decade to take sufficient action to prevent GHG emissions exceeding levels which scientists agree will lead to irreversible and catastrophic climate change.
Reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have identified that the consequences of allowing temperatures to rise by 2o centigrade above pre-industrial levels (rather than the 1.5o ‘ambition’ set out in the Paris Agreement) are stark. Extreme weather events, rising sea levels, disruption to food supplies and potential societal instability will directly affect 100's of millions more people and indirectly threaten the whole of humanity. Continuing emissions at business-as-usual levels threatens our very existence.
While acknowledging that the two local Councils cannot make all these changes themselves, that the sum of actions by individuals alone will be insufficient within the required timescales, and that there will be significant reliance on wider Government policies it aims to document what must be achieved. As such it is a transformative report that requires engagement across every sector of society.
The report cannot, and does not seek to, provide all the answers but, by setting out a clear framework and defining a vision, it seeks to engage the wider community to ensure there is a clear understanding of the scale of the problem as well as the options and opportunities to address each issue. Ultimately, the route taken will need to be decided by those impacted, with current decision makers providing appropriate means to ensure the widest possible input is obtained.
Nor does it exist in isolation from the many other activities already planned or underway across the area to address the crises we face. Rather, the intention is to fully understand each of these activities and their contribution in getting us to the vision. It seeks to address the question: if getting to zero carbon is the goal, where are we now, and how can we get there in a manner that also addresses the associated crises of ecology and inequality?
The first report is an initial assessment, a ‘point in time’ perspective. As our understanding develops, as more people are engaged, as the science, political and social environment develop so will this document. In that sense it aims to be a genuine living document that can help inform, inspire and create action.
Background
Both Dorset Council and Bournemouth, Christchurch & Poole Council (BCP) declared climate and ecological emergencies in 2019. These declarations are based on the scientific evidence that we have less than a decade to take sufficient action to prevent GHG emissions exceeding levels which scientists agree will lead to irreversible and catastrophic climate change.
Reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have identified that the consequences of allowing temperatures to rise by 2o centigrade above pre-industrial levels (rather than the 1.5o ‘ambition’ set out in the Paris Agreement) are stark. Extreme weather events, rising sea levels, disruption to food supplies and potential societal instability will directly affect 100's of millions more people and indirectly threaten the whole of humanity. Continuing emissions at business-as-usual levels threatens our very existence.
Figure 1. Consequences of relative temperature increases Source: United Nations
Despite this, as can be seen in Figure 2, emissions are still increasing in many locations; they are little better than flat in western economies and nowhere near the levels required to meet the targets in the Paris Agreement. In 2019, it was made clear that “emissions need to fall 7.6 percent every year for next decade to meet 1.5o Paris Target” yet, while many Governments across the world, including the UK, have raised their ambitions since the Paris Agreement, according to a UN climate action report issued in March 2021 we are “nowhere close to the level of action needed to fight global warming".
Figure 2. Emissions levels by country / area (totals and per capita) Source: https://www.carbonbrief.org/
In August 2021, the IPCC’s latest report was described by UN Secretary General, António Guterres as a ‘Code Red for Humanity’; he stressed “We need immediate action on energy. Without deep carbon pollution cuts now, the 1.5°C goal will fall quickly out of reach. This report must sound a death knell for coal and fossil fuels, before they destroy our planet”.
Figure 3. Projections of the likely outcomes of current policies, actions and pledges
Despite this warning, pledges and commitments made a few months later at COP26 in Glasgow, remain off target and, as can be seen from Climate Action Tracker’s analysis in Figure 3, current policies and action leave us on course for around 2.7oC warming.
Almost hidden in plain sight, is the fact that even getting to zero is insufficient to address the crisis. The IPCC pathways (See Figure 4), which show a range of likely scenarios of emissions over the remainder of the century, all require negative emissions in the second half of the century. The fact that by the end of the century we will potentially need to sequester almost half the level of fossil fuel pollution we currently emit makes it clear that the earlier we get to zero the better. It is primarily for this reason that we have aligned with many climate scientists targeting 2030 for net zero.
Almost hidden in plain sight, is the fact that even getting to zero is insufficient to address the crisis. The IPCC pathways (See Figure 4), which show a range of likely scenarios of emissions over the remainder of the century, all require negative emissions in the second half of the century. The fact that by the end of the century we will potentially need to sequester almost half the level of fossil fuel pollution we currently emit makes it clear that the earlier we get to zero the better. It is primarily for this reason that we have aligned with many climate scientists targeting 2030 for net zero.
Figure 4. Source: IPCC SR 1.5 October 2018
Along with climate change, we are witnessing an ecological catastrophe where extinction rates are 300 to 500 times the underlying natural rate and the very ecosystem that supports human life is under threat.
Chambers Dictionary defines an emergency as “an unexpected and serious happening which calls for immediate and determined action”. This report seeks to set out a vision and plan that acknowledges the severity of this emergency.
Dorset ImpactsThe likely impacts of global climate change are well publicised and many are already evident. During the final few months drafting of this report we have witnessed catastrophic flooding across Central Europe, extensive forest fires in Turkey, Italy and the US. Pacific states are already preparing to move populations in the coming decades as sea levels rise. Thousands of refugees are fleeing areas stricken by drought where ‘normal’ life is no longer possible. More record summer temperatures were broken, again. July 2021 was the hottest month ever recorded.
What is less well known is the severity of the impacts of environmental breakdown here in Dorset. We are not only susceptible to increasingly extreme weather events but could also witness the loss of species unable to cope with a warmer, drier environment; our heaths and countryside may change dramatically, exacerbated by the arrival of invasive species which were once incapable of taking hold in a temperate climate.
Sea level rises could impact a swathe of our coastal regions by mid-century as outlined on Climate Central’s global sea level rise projections. Many of the areas in and around Poole Harbour, Weymouth sea-front, Chesil Beach, shown in red in Figure 5, are at risk of rising sea-levels and storm surges by 2050 (as well as others not shown here but available for view on the map).
Chambers Dictionary defines an emergency as “an unexpected and serious happening which calls for immediate and determined action”. This report seeks to set out a vision and plan that acknowledges the severity of this emergency.
Dorset ImpactsThe likely impacts of global climate change are well publicised and many are already evident. During the final few months drafting of this report we have witnessed catastrophic flooding across Central Europe, extensive forest fires in Turkey, Italy and the US. Pacific states are already preparing to move populations in the coming decades as sea levels rise. Thousands of refugees are fleeing areas stricken by drought where ‘normal’ life is no longer possible. More record summer temperatures were broken, again. July 2021 was the hottest month ever recorded.
What is less well known is the severity of the impacts of environmental breakdown here in Dorset. We are not only susceptible to increasingly extreme weather events but could also witness the loss of species unable to cope with a warmer, drier environment; our heaths and countryside may change dramatically, exacerbated by the arrival of invasive species which were once incapable of taking hold in a temperate climate.
Sea level rises could impact a swathe of our coastal regions by mid-century as outlined on Climate Central’s global sea level rise projections. Many of the areas in and around Poole Harbour, Weymouth sea-front, Chesil Beach, shown in red in Figure 5, are at risk of rising sea-levels and storm surges by 2050 (as well as others not shown here but available for view on the map).
Figure 5. Climate Central Global Sea Level Rise Projections
Research undertaken at Bournemouth University, shown in Figure 6 (and covered in more detail in the Land Use chapter), captures the dramatic changes in land use and associated environmental degradation that have been seen over just a few decades, including the move to ‘improved’ grassland, the spread of invasive species, spread of novel diseases of plants and animals and other issues associated with excessive use of nitrogen, urbanisation and loss of 50% of hedgerows.
Figure 6. Maps illustrating the change in Dorset’s land use over time
These examples are not exhaustive but serve to illustrate these are not just problems that affect other more exposed regions of the world. There is no doubt that a changing climate and associated loss of biodiversity will impact us here in Dorset.
Zero Carbon BritainThe Centre for Alternative Technology has been publishing Zero Carbon Britain reports for more than a decade. These have shown how, with known technology and no nuclear, we already have all the tools we need to address the climate crisis while living heathier, happier lives. These reports were the initial inspiration for this project, prompting the question, if we can get to zero, what would that look like and feel like for those of us living in Dorset.
Why Dorset?While the idea for Zero Carbon Dorset was conceived and developed by people living and working in the county, there are several other factors that make it an ideal location for a study of this nature, not least its unique geographical features. Containing the South West’s second largest conurbation to the south east of the county, to the north and west Dorset comprises predominantly rural communities and small towns. It enjoys both agricultural and natural (often protected) landscapes as well as a coastline (including the world-famous Jurassic Coast) along its southerly border. Virtually all the aspects that need to be assessed when considering the wider climate crisis can be applied to Dorset, making it somewhere where we can not only consider many of the available solutions, but also provide a template for other areas to use.
Of course, solving the climate crisis will require global action as is recognised in the Justice for All and Effective Policies chapters. However, action needs to be bottom-up as well as top-down and the aim of this work is to speak to a sense of place while being sufficiently of scale to provide a comprehensive plan.
Dorset ContextDorset, at just over 1,000 sq miles (2,653 sq km), is home to nearly 800,000 people, just over half of whom live within the south-eastern conurbation covered by BCP Council, which comprises just 6% of the area. The remainder are covered by Dorset Council. Both Councils restructured into the two new unitary authorities in 2019. While this removed District Councils there are still a number of Town and Parish Councils, predominantly in the Dorset Council area. There are 8 parliamentary constituencies, all of which are currently held by the Conservatives.
Often perceived as a relatively wealthy area (Sandbanks peninsula, one of the world’s most expensive property locations, is in Poole), Dorset also contains pockets of deprivation with some neighbourhoods among the 10% most deprived in the country. An ageing population (Dorset has a 50% higher proportion of over 65s compared to the UK average) and poor transport provision create particular social issues for many residents (reliance on private vehicles has led to multiple car ownership being a third higher in the Dorset Council area than the UK average).
Zero Carbon BritainThe Centre for Alternative Technology has been publishing Zero Carbon Britain reports for more than a decade. These have shown how, with known technology and no nuclear, we already have all the tools we need to address the climate crisis while living heathier, happier lives. These reports were the initial inspiration for this project, prompting the question, if we can get to zero, what would that look like and feel like for those of us living in Dorset.
Why Dorset?While the idea for Zero Carbon Dorset was conceived and developed by people living and working in the county, there are several other factors that make it an ideal location for a study of this nature, not least its unique geographical features. Containing the South West’s second largest conurbation to the south east of the county, to the north and west Dorset comprises predominantly rural communities and small towns. It enjoys both agricultural and natural (often protected) landscapes as well as a coastline (including the world-famous Jurassic Coast) along its southerly border. Virtually all the aspects that need to be assessed when considering the wider climate crisis can be applied to Dorset, making it somewhere where we can not only consider many of the available solutions, but also provide a template for other areas to use.
Of course, solving the climate crisis will require global action as is recognised in the Justice for All and Effective Policies chapters. However, action needs to be bottom-up as well as top-down and the aim of this work is to speak to a sense of place while being sufficiently of scale to provide a comprehensive plan.
Dorset ContextDorset, at just over 1,000 sq miles (2,653 sq km), is home to nearly 800,000 people, just over half of whom live within the south-eastern conurbation covered by BCP Council, which comprises just 6% of the area. The remainder are covered by Dorset Council. Both Councils restructured into the two new unitary authorities in 2019. While this removed District Councils there are still a number of Town and Parish Councils, predominantly in the Dorset Council area. There are 8 parliamentary constituencies, all of which are currently held by the Conservatives.
Often perceived as a relatively wealthy area (Sandbanks peninsula, one of the world’s most expensive property locations, is in Poole), Dorset also contains pockets of deprivation with some neighbourhoods among the 10% most deprived in the country. An ageing population (Dorset has a 50% higher proportion of over 65s compared to the UK average) and poor transport provision create particular social issues for many residents (reliance on private vehicles has led to multiple car ownership being a third higher in the Dorset Council area than the UK average).
Figure 7. Dorset’s three largest producers of GHG emissions
Current Emissions
Greenhouse gas emissions in Dorset are primarily driven by Residential use (36%), Transport (40%) and Business (25%). These are all higher than the UK averages, in part because agriculture and land emissions only accounts for 3% of emissions, although this is offset by other land use absorbing (sequestering) about 5% of emissions.
While different sources show slightly different emissions figures (particularly for land), the assessments we have used indicate that across Dorset we emit around 3,129,000 tonnes of greenhouse gases (3,129 ktCO2e - expressed in terms of carbon equivalent) while the way we use our land (including trees and all natural carbon sinks) takes up (sequesters) just 145,000 tCO2e. These figures do not include emissions associated with goods we import, aviation or shipping.
Greenhouse gas emissions in Dorset are primarily driven by Residential use (36%), Transport (40%) and Business (25%). These are all higher than the UK averages, in part because agriculture and land emissions only accounts for 3% of emissions, although this is offset by other land use absorbing (sequestering) about 5% of emissions.
While different sources show slightly different emissions figures (particularly for land), the assessments we have used indicate that across Dorset we emit around 3,129,000 tonnes of greenhouse gases (3,129 ktCO2e - expressed in terms of carbon equivalent) while the way we use our land (including trees and all natural carbon sinks) takes up (sequesters) just 145,000 tCO2e. These figures do not include emissions associated with goods we import, aviation or shipping.
Table 1. Emissions by sector and council area.
Note: Waste data is from https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/env18-local-authority-collected-waste-annual-results-tables Other excluded and generic recycling conversion factor used to calculate carbon emissions (account for 0.7% of total waste carbon emissions) Conversion factors here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/greenhouse-gas-reporting-conversion-factors-2020 Note: Business emissions includes public sector emissions (Dorset: 37.4 ktCO2e & BCP: 56.7 ktCO2e) Note: Land use is net emissions for forest, cropland, grassland, wetlands, settlements & harvested wood products.
This is the immediate challenge, to reduce emission levels and increase sequestration, initially to net zero, then ultimately to a negative number to cover exported emissions.
Figure 8. Carbon balance sheet chart showing combined data for both council areas
Alongside these technical challenges are the things that provide us with a sense of place; what it feels like to live here, whether in the urban area of BCP or the rural landscapes of Dorset. From the early morning congestion in our towns to the open space in our forests and heaths. From almost unrestricted access to the area’s most iconic land and seascapes to the prohibitive cost of housing (particularly for today’s youth). From the signs of unparalleled wealth on one of the planet’s most expensive real estate locations to pockets of deprivation that would not be out of place in the towns of the former industrialised heartlands. From a county that offers so much yet, like every other, risks the ravages of environmental breakdown.
Project ApproachThe following section outlines the detailed approach and methodology used in each chapter. The report has been developed collaboratively over a number of months using group discussions, expert input, academic studies, and through cross-referencing a variety of alternative sources. These include the Councils’ Climate and Ecological Emergency Action Plans and the collaboratively produced responses to these.
We are particularly grateful to East Dorset Friends of the Earth, Dorset CAN (Climate Action Network), Planet Purbeck, Bridport Renewal Corridor, many staff at Bournemouth University, the Environment / Sustainability teams at BCP and Dorset Councils, and many individuals and academics who have either produced valuable reports that have been considered in the drafting of this report and/or have assisted along the way. While many of these are named, there are others whose contribution in events may not be specifically referenced but will have helped shape, move forwards and reach agreement on many areas. Special thanks go to the Centre for Alternative Technology and their Zero Carbon Britain team, whose work not only provided the initial inspiration for this document but has also been a constant source of reference. While their ideas have been incorporated, the inclusion of the above organisations does not imply they are necessarily fully supportive of all the ideas here. This report is independently edited, and the final views are those of the authors named at the beginning of each chapter.
Business and marketsThere are two key elements to tackling the climate and ecological crisis; a Green New Deal and nature-based solutions and we will explore both in this report. There is some acknowledgement of this with the UK Government’s Build Back Better plan, which sets out plans to support a transition to a green, net zero economy, based on skilled jobs. The 52,000 businesses in Dorset who provide goods, services and employment are integral to delivering the 2030 vision of a net zero Dorset. In addition, Dorset Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) has a pivotal role in helping businesses, local government, education institutes and other industry and community organisations deliver a net zero Dorset.
However, as the market has so far failed to deliver the necessary and urgent transformation of our economy, we believe businesses, and in particular Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs), who do not have the luxury of resources to make such environmental and social changes to their business model, need government help and support, such as that provided by Low Carbon Dorset, to invest now to deliver this greener future.
Interestingly, Dorset LEP’s work with Regen, covered in the Power Up chapter, on how Dorset can be decarbonised, is closely aligned with our ambition, albeit over a different timescale. Equally, we have noted some great work being carried out by individual businesses which we have been able to include as case studies. We would hope the report acts as a catalyst for other businesses to let us know what they are doing and/or start on the road to zero carbon.
The role of Central GovernmentThe report acknowledges that many decisions, politically and financially, sit with Central Government and, where appropriate, it makes recommendations for campaigning and lobbying for this support, for example through programmes such as the Green New Deal, covered in detail in the Effective Policies chapter. It also notes in the Justice for All chapter how numerous reports have shown the cost of inaction to be greater than the cost of acting now. In fact according to the Stern Review, without action, the overall costs of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global gross domestic product (GDP) each year, forever. Including a wider range of risks and impacts could increase this to 20% of GDP or more, also indefinitely.
Point in Time
While we remain of the opinion that, in general terms, action needs to be accelerated rapidly, Government legislation, Council action plans and activity are all on-going and may lead to some comments and objectives being out of date by the time the report is read. This was particularly noticeable around COP26, when the UK Government was keen to announce a number of new measures, and from both Councils who continue to develop their CEE plans and activity. Where possible we have commented on these developments. Dorset Council's 2021 plan update was a further step in the right direction as was the open letter to Central Government from Cllr Bryan (see Key Findings and Assessment). We hope to be able to align future reports more closely to Council plans and actions, including more specific and quantified comments on any gaps.
Project ApproachThe following section outlines the detailed approach and methodology used in each chapter. The report has been developed collaboratively over a number of months using group discussions, expert input, academic studies, and through cross-referencing a variety of alternative sources. These include the Councils’ Climate and Ecological Emergency Action Plans and the collaboratively produced responses to these.
We are particularly grateful to East Dorset Friends of the Earth, Dorset CAN (Climate Action Network), Planet Purbeck, Bridport Renewal Corridor, many staff at Bournemouth University, the Environment / Sustainability teams at BCP and Dorset Councils, and many individuals and academics who have either produced valuable reports that have been considered in the drafting of this report and/or have assisted along the way. While many of these are named, there are others whose contribution in events may not be specifically referenced but will have helped shape, move forwards and reach agreement on many areas. Special thanks go to the Centre for Alternative Technology and their Zero Carbon Britain team, whose work not only provided the initial inspiration for this document but has also been a constant source of reference. While their ideas have been incorporated, the inclusion of the above organisations does not imply they are necessarily fully supportive of all the ideas here. This report is independently edited, and the final views are those of the authors named at the beginning of each chapter.
Business and marketsThere are two key elements to tackling the climate and ecological crisis; a Green New Deal and nature-based solutions and we will explore both in this report. There is some acknowledgement of this with the UK Government’s Build Back Better plan, which sets out plans to support a transition to a green, net zero economy, based on skilled jobs. The 52,000 businesses in Dorset who provide goods, services and employment are integral to delivering the 2030 vision of a net zero Dorset. In addition, Dorset Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) has a pivotal role in helping businesses, local government, education institutes and other industry and community organisations deliver a net zero Dorset.
However, as the market has so far failed to deliver the necessary and urgent transformation of our economy, we believe businesses, and in particular Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs), who do not have the luxury of resources to make such environmental and social changes to their business model, need government help and support, such as that provided by Low Carbon Dorset, to invest now to deliver this greener future.
Interestingly, Dorset LEP’s work with Regen, covered in the Power Up chapter, on how Dorset can be decarbonised, is closely aligned with our ambition, albeit over a different timescale. Equally, we have noted some great work being carried out by individual businesses which we have been able to include as case studies. We would hope the report acts as a catalyst for other businesses to let us know what they are doing and/or start on the road to zero carbon.
The role of Central GovernmentThe report acknowledges that many decisions, politically and financially, sit with Central Government and, where appropriate, it makes recommendations for campaigning and lobbying for this support, for example through programmes such as the Green New Deal, covered in detail in the Effective Policies chapter. It also notes in the Justice for All chapter how numerous reports have shown the cost of inaction to be greater than the cost of acting now. In fact according to the Stern Review, without action, the overall costs of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global gross domestic product (GDP) each year, forever. Including a wider range of risks and impacts could increase this to 20% of GDP or more, also indefinitely.
Point in Time
While we remain of the opinion that, in general terms, action needs to be accelerated rapidly, Government legislation, Council action plans and activity are all on-going and may lead to some comments and objectives being out of date by the time the report is read. This was particularly noticeable around COP26, when the UK Government was keen to announce a number of new measures, and from both Councils who continue to develop their CEE plans and activity. Where possible we have commented on these developments. Dorset Council's 2021 plan update was a further step in the right direction as was the open letter to Central Government from Cllr Bryan (see Key Findings and Assessment). We hope to be able to align future reports more closely to Council plans and actions, including more specific and quantified comments on any gaps.